Scenario-Based Analysis of Iran's Gas and Electricity Imbalance and Its Consequences on Smart Energy Infrastructure Using the LEAP Model Up to the 2050 Horizon
Pages 1-20
Mohammad Hassan Vaghef, Ali Asghar Esmaeil Nia, Houshang Momeni Vesalian
Abstract In recent years, Iran’s gas and electricity imbalance has transcended simple supply-demand technicalities, emerging as a critical strategic challenge threatening national energy security, infrastructure sustainability, and broader economic development. Given the country’s profound reliance on natural gas for power generation—and the increasing integration of smart grids and digital energy management—analyzing future imbalances is vital. This research utilizes the LEAP model to conduct a scenario-based analysis of Iran’s energy deficit through the 2050 horizon, specifically evaluating its impact on the resilience of smart energy infrastructure. The study examines two distinct scenarios: the continuation of current trends and a comprehensive demand optimization strategy, both framed within a stress test regarding supply stabilization post-2025. Findings reveal that under the “status quo” scenario, the widening gap between supply and demand will severely erode energy export capacity, diminish critical foreign exchange earnings, and heighten the risk of failures within smart energy networks. Conversely, while the demand optimization scenario successfully reduces energy intensity and mitigates part of the deficit, it is not a panacea. Ultimately, the results demonstrate that demand management alone cannot resolve the imbalance. Instead, it must be coupled with expanded generation, transmission, and storage capacities. This study concludes that a synergistic approach—combining aggressive infrastructure investment, persistent improvements in energy efficiency, and intelligent demand-side management—is essential. By implementing such a comprehensive strategy, Iran can effectively reduce its chronic energy imbalance while significantly enhancing the overall resilience and long-term stability of its smart energy infrastructure by 2050.







